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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.

Miami OH

Conference:MAC
Expected RPI:159.0
Current RPI:159
Expected SOS:126
Current SOS:126
Current Record:14-17
Expected Record:14-17
Current Conf Record:9-11
Expected Conf Record:9-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-2
Current OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC Record:5-6
Expected OOC RPI:136
Expected OOC SOS:146


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-17159.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Miami OH.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Fordham (290.0)A10A54-55W100%0.0
11-14Wright St. (99.0)HorzH73-67W100%0.0
11-17LIU Brooklyn (232.0)NECN74-78W100%0.0
11-19Hartford (198.0)AEN58-68L0%0.0
11-22Tulane (175.0)AmerA80-59L0%0.0
11-26Austin Peay (164.0)OVCA86-61L0%0.0
12-2Western Illinois (302.0)SumA73-76W100%0.0
12-5Missouri (43.0)SECA70-51L0%0.0
12-9Fort Wayne (209.0)SumH81-73W100%0.0
12-21DePaul (186.0)BEA83-66L0%0.0
12-30Ohio St. (20.0)B10A72-59L0%0.0
1-2Bowling Green (193.0)MACA72-77W100%0.0
1-6Western Michigan (177.0)MACH62-67L0%0.0
1-9Kent St. (154.0)MACH80-69W100%0.0
1-13Buffalo (25.0)MACA82-66L0%0.0
1-16Bowling Green (193.0)MACH70-81L0%0.0
1-20Ball St. (126.0)MACH71-53W100%0.0
1-23Central Michigan (167.0)MACA61-70W100%0.0
1-27Eastern Michigan (116.0)MACH48-58L0%0.0
1-30Akron (227.0)MACH79-64W100%0.0
2-3Northern Illinois (241.0)MACA65-81W100%0.0
2-6Western Michigan (177.0)MACA68-64L0%0.0
2-9Toledo (75.0)MACH67-73L0%0.0
2-13Eastern Michigan (116.0)MACA58-57L0%0.0
2-17Ohio (204.0)MACA92-87L0%0.0
2-20Buffalo (25.0)MACH84-81W100%0.0
2-24Akron (227.0)MACA62-64W100%0.0
2-27Kent St. (154.0)MACA90-83L0%0.0
3-2Ohio (204.0)MACH66-75L0%0.0
3-5Ohio (204.0)MACH68-55W100%0.0
3-8Toledo (75.0)MACN71-69L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Miami OH's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Miami OH's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Miami OH.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.


Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Miami OHMAC26.3426.3447.5547.55-1.29-1.29
OhioMAC5.565.5640.7440.74-1.03-1.03
ToledoMAC4.154.1564.5264.521.211.21
AkronMAC4.144.1444.8344.83-0.43-0.43
BuffaloMAC4.144.1477.4277.422.272.27
Kent St.MAC4.114.1148.3948.39-0.13-0.13
Bowling GreenMAC4.034.0346.4346.43-0.29-0.29
Eastern MichiganMAC4.034.0355.5655.560.450.45
Western MichiganMAC3.983.9846.4346.43-0.28-0.28
Central MichiganMAC2.552.5555.1755.170.260.26
Ball St.MAC2.472.4760.0060.000.490.49
Northern IllinoisMAC2.472.4737.9337.93-0.60-0.60
Fort WayneSum1.731.7351.8551.850.060.06
LIU BrooklynNEC1.721.7253.1253.120.110.11
Wright St.Horz1.711.7174.1974.190.830.83
Western IllinoisSum1.671.6734.7834.78-0.51-0.51
FordhamA101.661.6630.0030.00-0.67-0.67
TulaneAmer1.661.6643.3343.33-0.22-0.22
HartfordAE1.661.6656.6756.670.220.22
Austin PeayOVC1.611.6151.7251.720.060.06
DePaulBE1.611.6133.3333.33-0.54-0.54
MissouriSEC1.611.6160.0060.000.320.32
Ohio St.B101.611.6174.1974.190.780.78
OaklandHorz0.290.2957.5857.580.040.04
Cleveland St.Horz0.280.2832.3532.35-0.10-0.10
South Dakota St.Sum0.210.2180.0080.000.120.12
MilwaukeeHorz0.190.1948.3948.39-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.180.1845.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Green BayHorz0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
DetroitHorz0.180.1820.0020.00-0.11-0.11
MarshallCUSA0.180.1869.7069.700.070.07
South DakotaSum0.180.1873.3373.330.080.08
North Dakota St.Sum0.150.1541.3841.38-0.03-0.03
SyracuseACC0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.140.1430.0030.00-0.06-0.06
IndianaB100.130.1351.6151.610.000.00
Alabama A&MSWAC0.130.139.689.68-0.11-0.11
South CarolinaSEC0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.130.1369.7069.700.050.05
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
Appalachian St.SB0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.130.1353.3353.330.010.01
Central ConnecticutNEC0.130.1343.7543.75-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.130.1370.0070.000.050.05
Youngstown St.Horz0.130.1320.0020.00-0.08-0.08
DenverSum0.120.1246.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.120.1224.1424.14-0.06-0.06
Oral RobertsSum0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Robert MorrisNEC0.120.1248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
ButlerBE0.110.1160.6160.610.020.02
IUPUIHorz0.110.1132.1432.14-0.04-0.04
North FloridaASun0.110.1136.6736.67-0.03-0.03
South FloridaAmer0.110.1131.2531.25-0.04-0.04
Indiana St.MVC0.110.1137.9337.93-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.110.1171.8871.880.050.05
MarylandB100.110.1158.0658.060.020.02
Tennessee MartinOVC0.110.1127.5927.59-0.05-0.05
TulsaAmer0.110.1161.2961.290.020.02
MarquetteBE0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
IllinoisB100.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
Norfolk St.MEAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Stony BrookAE0.100.1038.7138.71-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.100.1042.4242.42-0.02-0.02
Jackson St.SWAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
AlbanyAE0.100.1067.7467.740.040.04
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.100.1012.5012.50-0.08-0.08
Saint Joseph'sA100.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Texas A&MSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.030.03
XavierBE0.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
St. Francis NYNEC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
Iowa St.B120.090.0941.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.080.0870.5970.590.030.03
Chicago St.WAC0.080.083.333.33-0.08-0.08
Coppin St.MEAC0.080.0815.6215.62-0.06-0.06
EvansvilleMVC0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
IonaMAAC0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.080.0845.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Saint LouisA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.080.0882.7682.760.050.05
MaineAE0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
New HampshireAE0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.080.0846.8846.88-0.00-0.00
TempleAmer0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
UMBCAE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
IowaB100.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
BinghamtonAE0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
UMass LowellAE0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
Penn St.B100.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
BryantNEC0.070.079.689.68-0.06-0.06
CincinnatiAmer0.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
Sacred HeartNEC0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.070.0763.3363.330.020.02
St. BonaventureA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
ValparaisoMVC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.070.0784.3884.380.050.05
NortheasternCAA0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
Texas SouthernSWAC0.070.0744.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.070.0737.9337.93-0.02-0.02
NJITASun0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.060.0625.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.050.056.676.67-0.05-0.05
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
BelmontOVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
IdahoBSky0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
San Jose St.MWC0.050.0510.3410.34-0.04-0.04
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
VanderbiltSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
ChattanoogaSC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
DuquesneA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
East CarolinaAmer0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Florida St.ACC0.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
George WashingtonA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
HoustonAmer0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
La SalleA100.050.0540.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MemphisAmer0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
OregonP120.050.0564.7164.710.020.02
PortlandWCC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
PrincetonIvy0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
SMUAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
UCFAmer0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
USCP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
VCUA100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
VermontAE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
VillanovaBE0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
West VirginiaB120.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
NorthwesternB100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.050.0568.9768.970.020.02
FairfieldMAAC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
CornellIvy0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
KansasB120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
UABCUSA0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
AmericanPat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
LibertyBSth0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Louisiana TechCUSA0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
StetsonASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Montana St.BSky0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.030.0351.7251.720.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
VirginiaACC0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
BucknellPat0.030.0373.5373.530.010.01
Colorado St.MWC0.030.0332.2632.26-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
George MasonA100.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Georgia St.SB0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
LSUSEC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
MassachusettsA100.030.0339.3939.39-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.030.0336.3636.36-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
RiderMAAC0.030.0370.9770.970.010.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
TennesseeSEC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
UtahP120.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Wichita St.Amer0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Georgia TechACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
GonzagaWCC0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
MinnesotaB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
NebraskaB100.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
PurdueB100.030.0382.3582.350.020.02
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
StanfordP120.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
The CitadelSC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
William & MaryCAA0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
BrownIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00